Oil Back Toward $100 on Iran Conflict; Futures Slip, AI Trade Holds
Analysis
US equity futures pointed lower Tuesday as the renewed Iran conflict sent crude (CL=F) back toward $100, and the energy complex did the heavy lifting premarket: ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon (MPC) and Valero (VLO) all rose on Middle East supply fears while Dow (^DJI), S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) contracts slipped. The rate backdrop is just as uninviting. Per MT Newswires, the probability of a September Fed rate increase remains elevated, and the Week Ahead is dominated by the August inflation print and Oracle (ORCL) earnings, both due this week via The Wall Street Journal's watch list. TotalEnergies (TTE) advancing its Papua LNG project toward final investment decision — alongside an Exxon CEO who still calls Venezuela 'uninvestable' — kept the sector on the front page. The AI buildout stayed loud into the session. Anthropic is expected to start marketing its IPO in mid-October, with JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Citigroup (C) all tagged in the chatter, and the company has signed deals worth at least 14.8 GW of compute capacity since October, a flow the wire tied to Amazon (AMZN). Elsewhere in the complex, Mistral secured a $3.5B Series D at a $24B valuation, and OpenAI and Firmus disclosed plans for Malaysian data centers. The chip tape held up too: Nvidia (NVDA) edged up 0.84% to $230.36 on roughly 135.4M shares to head the volume board, Intel (INTC) added 4.51% to $95.80, and semi-test names NX jumped 22.23% to $22.93, AEHR added 13.1% to $86.26, COHU rose 10.31% to $50.72, and storage's SanDisk (SNDK) jumped 11.9% to $1,740. Street calls leaned the same way, with Citic Securities upgrading Broadcom (AVGO) to Buy at a $525 price target and Baird lifting Airbnb (ABNB) from $175 to $200. The sell side, though, was violent. Lululemon (LULU) sank 17.38% to $100.61 on 37.4M shares, UiPath (PATH) fell 16.63% to $15.19 on an outsized 104.6M shares, Guidewire (GWRE) dropped 19.93% to $162.42, Fair Isaac (FICO) slid 16.68% to $932.26, and Autodesk (ADSK) lost 8.26% to $217.90; BCPC's 85.93% wipeout to $24.17 on under 8,000 shares looks like a corporate action rather than a fundamental print. Tesla (TSLA) fell 5.92% to $354.08 on roughly 65M shares despite FSD Supervised winning approval in Slovenia, Nike (NKE) slipped premarket after its S&P 100 exclusion — retail called it a 'sinking ship' on Stocktwits — and Amazon compounded a rough day when a Prime Air cargo plane crashed at Miami Airport, killing at least 5. A Motley Fool piece flagged an $18.6B 'warning' rattling Wall Street across NVDA, Palantir (PLTR) and Meta (META), while technical signals across 2,594 symbols skew bearish at 39 versus 11 bullish, led by overbought readings on MRNA ($145.55) and ARCT ($15.82).
Highlights
- Energy bid premarket as the Iran conflict sends CL=F back toward $100: XOM, CVX, COP, MPC and VLO all higher on Middle East supply fears while Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slip
- AI infrastructure demand stays loud: Anthropic to start marketing its IPO in mid-October (JPM, GS, MS, C) after signing at least 14.8 GW of compute deals; Mistral's $3.5B Series D values it at $24B
- Semis and test gear rip higher: NX +22.23% to $22.93, AEHR +13.1% to $86.26, COHU +10.31% to $50.72, SNDK +11.9% to $1,740; Citic upgrades AVGO to Buy with a $525 target; Baird lifts ABNB to $200
Lowlights
- Rate risk dominates: September Fed rate-increase probability remains elevated into the August CPI print, weighing on Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures into Oracle's earnings week
- Violent heavy-volume losses: LULU -17.38% to $100.61 (37.4M shares), PATH -16.63% to $15.19 (104.6M shares), GWRE -19.93% to $162.42, FICO -16.68% to $932.26, ADSK -8.26% to $217.90; BCPC -85.93% to $24.17 on under 8,000 shares looks like a corporate action
- TSLA -5.92% to $354.08 despite the Slovenia FSD approval; NKE lower premarket after its S&P 100 exclusion; Amazon's Prime Air Miami crash (at least 5 killed) clouds its debut sterling bond sale; 39 bearish vs 11 bullish signals across 2,594 symbols
Bull News
- Energy strength on geopolitics: Middle East supply fears lift XOM, CVX, COP, MPC and VLO premarket as CL=F heads back toward $100; TotalEnergies advances Papua LNG toward final investment decision
- AI capex and capital markets intact: Anthropic's 14.8 GW of compute deals plus mid-October IPO marketing (JPM, GS, MS, C); Mistral's $3.5B Series D at a $24B valuation; OpenAI and Firmus plan Malaysian data centers
- Street upgrades and momentum: Citic upgrades AVGO to Buy (PT $525) and Baird lifts ABNB from $175 to $200; NVDA +0.84% to $230.36 on 135.4M shares and INTC +4.51% to $95.80
Bear News
- A September Fed rate increase is still priced as likely ahead of the August CPI — the dominant macro overhang, with all three index futures lower premarket
- Loser carnage on heavy volume: LULU -17.38% to $100.61, PATH -16.63% to $15.19 on 104.6M shares, GWRE -19.93% to $162.42, FICO -16.68% to $932.26, ASAN -12.69% to $8.81, ADSK -8.26% to $217.90
- Amazon's rough day: a Prime Air cargo plane crashed at Miami (at least 5 killed) as it mandates JPM, BCS, HSBC and NWG for its debut sterling bond; a Motley Fool piece flags an $18.6B warning rattling Wall Street across NVDA, PLTR and META
This is a geopolitics-and-rates tape masquerading under a resilient AI trade. Crude's push back toward $100 on the Iran conflict gives energy (XOM, CVX, COP, MPC, VLO) the strongest premarket relative bid, while an elevated September Fed rate-increase probability into the August CPI keeps Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures lower into Oracle's earnings. AI infrastructure demand is unmistakably intact — Anthropic's 14.8 GW of compute deals and imminent mid-October IPO marketing, Mistral's $3.5B raise at a $24B valuation, OpenAI's Malaysian data centers, and NVDA heading the volume board at $230.36 on 135.4M shares — but breadth is poor: 39 bearish signals versus 11 bullish across 2,594 symbols and violent single-name swings in LULU (-17.38% to $100.61), PATH (-16.63% to $15.19 on 104.6M shares), TSLA (-5.92% to $354.08) and S&P-100-excluded Nike. Until the CPI print and the Fed path resolve, the constructive posture favors energy, momentum-led semis (NX, AEHR, COHU, SNDK, AVGO post-upgrade) and Oracle into earnings, while staying well clear of the heavy-volume losers.