Nvidia's First Year-Ahead Forecast Reignites the AI Trade as Dow Futures Dip
Analysis
The AI complex continued to set the tone as Dow futures pointed lower into Monday's session, with Iran, fresh Apple news, and the inflation tape in focus according to Investor's Business Daily. Nvidia (NVDA) remained the tape's center of gravity: $230.36, up 0.84% on roughly 135.4 million shares, headed the volume board. The chatter around the chipmaker dominated the flow — its first-ever year-ahead forecast puts it on a path to pass Apple and Alphabet, an $99 billion investment portfolio is 'turning Intel and CoreWeave into an AI stress test,' and its pending Hugging Face deal is expected to cost nearly twice as much as its last big acquisition. IBD also flagged buy signals on NVDA, Micron (MU), and Sandisk (SNDK), and one Motley Fool prediction has data centers passing 70% of AMD's revenue by 2027, before the Helios ramp is finished. The price tape was split along AI lines. Sandisk (SNDK) jumped 11.9% to $1,740 on 16.6 million shares, leading a gainers board that included NX +22.23% at $22.93, TYRA +15.25% to $28.65, TITN +14.85% to $26.22, AEHR +13.1% to $86.26, and COHU +10.31% to $50.72, while Intel (INTC) added 4.51% to $95.80 on 97.7 million shares. The losing column was far more violent: BCPC collapsed 85.93% to $24.17, Guidewire (GWRE) fell 19.93% to $162.42, Lululemon (LULU) sank 17.38% to $100.61 on a heavy 37.4 million shares, FICO dropped 16.68% to $932.26, and PATH slid 16.63% to $15.19 on 104.6 million shares. Tesla (TSLA) slipped 5.92% to $354.08 on about 65 million shares — despite Goldman's note that the Cybercab gives the company a cost advantage in robotaxis — heading into what Insider Monkey calls a make-or-break EU safety vote. Mega-cap news was mixed. Amazon (AMZN) absorbed a double hit as its Prime Air Boeing 767 cargo plane crashed while landing at Miami International, killing five people, and the Pentagon doubled down on its Anthropic blacklist — a move that puts the $100 billion-plus Anthropic has committed to AWS in scope and puts Alphabet (GOOGL) in the crosshairs too. Apple (AAPL) set its iPhone launch event, the first under new CEO John Ternus, and hiked Apple TV and Apple One prices again in the U.S., while Meta (META) agreed to an $18 billion teen-safety deal that puts pressure on TikTok and YouTube. Elsewhere, Solstice (SOLS) and Element Solutions (ESI) called off their $14.5 billion combination, Turkey lifted its inflation forecast to 28.4% as Middle East conflict pushes the outlook higher, Reuters reported China is readying humanoid robots for combat, and Salesforce (CRM) posted AI numbers that 'gave Benioff his swagger back.'
Highlights
- NVDA +0.84% to $230.36 on ~135.4M shares as its first-ever year-ahead forecast puts it on a path to pass Apple and Alphabet; IBD flags buy signals on NVDA, MU, and SNDK
- Sandisk (SNDK) +11.9% to $1,740 on 16.6M shares; NX +22.23% to $22.93, TYRA +15.25% to $28.65, AEHR +13.1% to $86.26 on the gainers board
- Apple (AAPL) sets its first iPhone launch under new CEO John Ternus; Meta (META) agrees to an $18 billion teen-safety deal; Salesforce (CRM) posts strong AI numbers
Lowlights
- BCPC -85.93% to $24.17; GWRE -19.93% to $162.42; LULU -17.38% to $100.61 on 37.4M shares; FICO -16.68% to $932.26; PATH -16.63% to $15.19
- Amazon (AMZN) hit by the Prime Air 767 crash at Miami that killed five, and by the Pentagon's doubled-down Anthropic blacklist — with the $100B+ Anthropic-AWS commitment in the blast radius
- Dow futures pointed lower as Iran and inflation dominate; TSLA -5.92% to $354.08 on ~65M shares ahead of the EU vote; signal scan runs 39 bearish vs 11 bullish across 2,594 symbols
Bull News
- Nvidia's first-ever year-ahead forecast puts it on a path to pass Apple and Alphabet; its Hugging Face deal will cost nearly twice its last big acquisition, and Motley Fool asks if Nvidia 'just said checkmate to AMD and Intel'
- IBD buy signals on NVDA, MU, SNDK: SNDK +11.9% to $1,740 on 16.6M shares, INTC +4.51% to $95.80 on 97.7M shares; AMD data centers predicted to pass 70% of revenue by 2027
- Salesforce (CRM) AI numbers 'gave Benioff his swagger back'; Docusign (DOCU) opens its AI tools to every agent; Lamar Advertising (LAMR) grows revenue and raises full-year guidance
Bear News
- Amazon's (AMZN) Prime Air Boeing 767 crashed while landing at Miami International, killing five; Amazon says it is 'heartbroken'
- Pentagon doubles down on the Anthropic blacklist, complicating the $100B-plus Anthropic has committed to AWS — why Amazon and Alphabet investors should care
- Turkey lifts its inflation forecast to 28.4% as Middle East conflict pushes the outlook higher; Solstice (SOLS) and Element Solutions (ESI) call off their $14.5B combination; TSLA -5.92% to $354.08 into a make-or-break EU vote
Risk-on and risk-off are fighting over the same tape. The AI trade remains the market's engine — NVDA at $230.36, up 0.84% on 135.4M shares, its first year-ahead forecast, IBD buy signals on NVDA/MU/SNDK, and SNDK's 11.9% rally to $1,740 — but Dow futures pointing lower on Iran and inflation, 39 bearish signals against 11 bullish across 2,594 symbols, and violent single-name swings (BCPC -85.93%, LULU -17.38%, FICO -16.68%) say the leadership is narrow and the margin for error is thin. The constructive path favors the buy-signal semi and storage names and the catalyst-driven megacaps (Apple's launch window, Meta's $18B safety deal, CRM's AI numbers) while fading the high-beta, low-volume losers until Tesla's EU vote and the inflation data force a hand; SPCX ($147.95, -1.2% on 49.1M shares) is the tell for Musk-beta appetite, with Cathie Wood's ARKK carrying TSLA plus SpaceX at 16% of the fund.